Gambling Classroom

Betting with The Public

Many casual gamblers fall into the trap of betting the side that everyone is on. The average gambler may scroll through social media and see a large majority of people are on one side, and use that as their reasoning to also take that side. The average gambler is a net losing gambler. The below statistics from Statista (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1126480/sports-betting-revenue-us/) shows this.

  1. In the United States in 2020, the sports betting industry market size is $203 billion. With that handle, the industry generated $1.55 billion.
  2. As the industry continues to grow, the revenue is forecasted to increase to $9.55 billion by 2025.

Example

Sports books wouldn’t generate this type of revenue if the average person was consistently winning bets. Lets say you were in a room with 100 people, and had each person fill out a poll of who they thought would win each spread and total of every NFL game that week. A square gambler would take the top 10 most picked lines out of the 100 people, and bet them. They would think this a great strategy because they are getting a large sample size of predictions. A seasoned professional gambler, would look at the 10 lowest picked lines. They would then dig into stats and trends that may show why bookmakers set the lines at what they did, and pick the ones with the most statistics to back them up. Like i said before, bookmakers aren’t in the business of giving away free money, and the average gambler loses. Don’t fall into the trap of always betting a line, just because everyone is betting it.

There are several different websites/apps that show the percent of bets each side is on. We recommend using the sharps only models to reference these numbers prior to making your picks. Below shows an image of the Sharps Only Model displaying bet percentages.

The last 2 columns of this model show the Spread Bet % and the Total Bet %. In this game, 52% of bets have come in on the Buccaneers, and 60% of bets have come in on the over. Whichever side has more bets on it, is the public side. This is a great reference for viewing bet percentages, and is something you should view prior to placing each bet .

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