Red Sox Vs Yankees October Baseball. One of the biggest rivalries in sports. Nothing compares to an elimination game in October. These games are typically the hardest to predict. Emotions run high and you can throw majority of stats out the window. There are a few stats I am interested in and that starts with who has been in these high pressure situations and excelled before.
Garrett Cole has pitched in 14 playoff games and boasts a 8-4 record with a 2.48. Cole is 1-3 with a 3.1 ERA in win or go home games. Cole has struggled in his last three starts, with an ERA over 6. The Yankees bullpen has been very solid this season, with a 3.5 ERA (3rd best).
Nathan Eovaldi has pitched in 6 playoff games and has a 6-1 record with a 1.61 ERA. With Chris Sale unavailable, Eduardo Rodriguez and Nick Pivetta are likely to work out of the pen. Eduardo Rodriguez has appeared in 8 post season games, but has only pitched 10 innings. In the Sox’s 2018 playoff run, Rodriguez started off rocky allowing 3 ER in 1.2 innings in the ALDS. He followed up this poor outing with going hitless in his next 5 appearances (2.2IP, 2BB, 0ER, 0H). Nick Pivetta closed out the Sox’s final regular season game against the Nationals, that clinched their playoff berth. He has little post season experience on his resume. Otherwise, the Red sox Bullpen has struggled mightily this season. Since the All Star Break, the Sox post a 5.23 ERA after the 6th inning. I expect the Sox to turn to Rodriguez and Pivetta out of the pin tonight to avoid the disaster if their bullpen.
The star studded Yankees lineup has plenty of post season experience. Anothony Rizzo has appeared in 17 playoff games with a .277 BA. Aaron Judge posts a .229 BA with 11 HR and 131 AB in the post season. Giancarlo Stanton has had 60 playoffs at bats and has a .267 BA with 8HR. Stanton bat has been hot to end the year with 17 HR since mid-August.
The Red sox starting lineup took a big blow with J.D Martinez getting ruled out. Without Martinez, the Sox are going to rely on Schwarber and Bogaerts to give them production in the middle of the order. Schwarber has had 66 post season at bats with a career .288 BA. Bogaerts has had 114 post season at bats and has a .219 BA. Rafeal Devers has had 45 post season at batas and a .311 BA.
Nothing in the above stats really stands out. These teams are very closely matched. Boston gets home field advantage since they edged the Yankees 10-9 in the season series. The Yankees have won the last 6 appearances. Gerrit Cole is 1-2 with a 6.19 ERA at Fenway this season. Eovaldi is 2-2 with a 3.71 ERA against the Yankees this season. Schwarber has had post season success against Cole in the past. Anthony Rizzo is 5-9 against Eovaldi.
Without seeing an edge on either side, I’m going to take the under 8. I think both starters pitch well. I like the Sox bringing Rodriguez and Pivetta out of the pen. The Yankees bullpen has been dominate and I expect all hands on deck to get them to the ALDS. Take the under.