NFL Bets

Week 1 DFS Slate Breakdown – Must Plays

NFL season is finally upon us, and that means DFS season is back. The goal of this article will be to give you an early glance at some of the best plays for Sunday to win you some cash. This article will be more of a broad overview of the whole slate with FanDuel pricing. Later in the week, I will provide my cash lineup breaking down the decision to each play.

First, let’s take a look at the highest/Lowest point totals for Sunday.

             Highest

1.       Browns/Chiefs: 54.5

2.       Cardinals/Titans: 52.5

3.       Ravens/Raiders: 51

4.       Packers/Saints: 50

It will be important to get exposure to players from these games.  Here are same games you may look to avoid some players from:

             Lowest

1.       Broncos/Giants: 41.5

2.       Dolphins/Patriots: 43.5

3.       Jags/Texans: 44.5

4.       Chargers/WFT: 44.5

These low point totals will not completely deter us from taking players from these games, but it is important to know the point totals to games, especially if you plan to use a team stack strategy.

Quarterback Analysis:

I will provide my top quarterback this week from 3 tiers: High priced, Mid Priced, Low Priced.

1.   High Price: Kyler Murray ($8400)

Coming in as the second most expensive QB behind Mahomes, Kyler Murray has one of the best matchups this week, facing off against the Titans who gave up the 5th most passing yards last year. Murray will be chalk this week, but that is fine for Cash Entries. The Cardinals played at the fastest pace in the league offensively last year. The Titans were 3rd fastest. This game should allow for points, and a lot of them. Murray offers a safe floor and boom potential against the lackluster Titans defense. 

Mid Price: Ryan Tannehill ($7,700)

I am going to stay in the Cardinals, Titans game for my Mid Tier Play. Tannehill gets a great matchup in an up tempo game. Tannehill also gets a new toy to try out as the Titans acquired star WR Julio Jones in the off season.  Look for Tannehill to come out slinging the rock against a shaky Arizona secondary and make a statement week 1. 

Value Play: Baker Mayfield

Baker finds himself in a matchup that is the highest total on the slate. The Browns come into this game as 6.5 point dogs. This is the dream scenario for a low priced QB. Baker is expected to be playing from behind, in a shootout, that is expected to stay within a touchdown. Mayfield will get plenty of chances to throw the rock and expect him to connect on several big plays that will plant him as a top scorer in week 1. 

Running Backs:

High Price: Alvin Kamala

In a week where many of the high priced running backs find themselves in good matchups, Kamara takes the top spot for me. Latavious Murray was just released by the Saint, which means no more vultures goal line carries for at least the early part of the season. Winston was named the starter for the Saints, who can kind of be a wild card. Without Michael Thomas, Kamara should be the main check down option. Last year, Kamara racked up 13 catches for 140 yards in the air with 2 TDs (nearly 200 total yards) against the middle of the pack Packers defense. Vegas expects the game to be high scoring as it has the 4th highest total. I expect Kamara to be lower owned than a majority of the other high priced backs and has the ceiling to be a slate breaker. 

Value Play: Raheem Mostert ($6100) 

Mostert possesses one of the best running back matchups this week against the second worst rushing defense last year. The 49ers backfield is a bit of an uncertainty with Trey Sermon backing up Mostert, but I expect Mostert to get a majority of the carries in a game that has a 7.5 point spread and could end up in a blowout with the 49ers running all over them. Sermon ($5200) also interests me with the blowout potential and the 49ers wanting to get their rookies some carries late. 

Value Play: James Robinson ($5900) 

Robinson is entirely too cheap this week, basically guaranteeing him chalk status. There’s not a ton to say here besides the obvious. In a game against last years worst run defense, Robinson should get a bulk of the carries after the Etienne injury. I don’t love how chalk Robinson will be, but with the floor value he provides you should feel ok with locking him into cash lineups. 

Wide Receivers:

High Price: Deandre Hopkins: ($8,200)

If you’re playing Murray at QB, you’re gonna wanna take a hard look at playing his stud WR. Hopkins gets one of the best matchups on the slate as he faces the poor Titans secondary. Bruce Arians loves to air the ball out and play up tempo. Hopkins will get plenty of looks in what should be a shootout. Hopkins is worth his expensive price tag in week 1, 

Value Play: Laviska Shenault ($5,600

I’ve watched enough Lovie Smith cover 2 defenses to know his defensive style isn’t effective against stopping receivers across the middle and in the flats. The Jags should want to slowly work Lawerance into his first NFL snaps with check downs and easy passes. Shenault should be the primary benefactor from this. I expect Shenault to get the ball in space early and often, and maybe even break one against the putrid Texans defense who was last in the league in passing yards allowed last year . 

Value Play: Michael Pittman ($5,300)

Pittman is expected to be the Colts #1 WR this year. Pittman had a solid season last year and gets a boost this year as the Colts brought in QB Carson Wentz. Wentz suffered an injury in camp but is good to go for Week 1 and he has a lot to prove. Expect Pittmann to get a large volume as T.Y Hilton was ruled out for week 1. Seattle’s secondary is nothing to brag about, and Pittman is primed to get loose for several big plays. Pittman is a great value play for Week 1.

Tight End:

High Price: Travis Kelce ($8,500)

Kelce could be in every write up this year. His resume speaks for itself. The Browns were not great against TEs last year. Although high priced, expect Kelce to put up points week 1. 

Mid price: Dallas Goedert ($5900)

The Eagles TE situation has been congested for a couple of years now with Zach Ertz also there. Ertz and the Eagles front office had a rough offseason with contract negotiations. It went as far as Ertz basically saying fairwell to Philadelphia in a press conference at the end of last year. With that being said, Ertz is still there making their TE situation still cloudy. Still, the Eagles have one of the best TE matchups of the slate against the Falcons and I expect both TEs to be effective. Goedert is playing for a new contract this year, and I expect him to get plenty of action Sunday. 

Value Play: Tyler Conklin ($4400)

With Irv Smith Jr. being placed on the IR, Conklin has stepped up into the TE1 role. They recently acquired former Jet Chris Herndon, but his usage is expected to limited in week 1 as he learns the playbook. The bengals suck against TEs. Conklin’s floor is low as it is still uncertain how he will be used, but with his low price, look for Conklin to get plenty of snaps and maybe find the end zone. 

Defense

High Price: LA Rams ($4,900)

The stout Rams D gets a visit from the Bears in week 1. The Bears have committed to Andy Dalton in week 1. Dalton has never been a guy who is gonna stuff the stat sheet, and the bears, recently, have not been an offensive juggernaut. Expect this Rams D to come out fired up, at home, against an extremely average Bears offense. 

Medium Price: Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,900)

The Jaguars get the dream matchup of playing the Texans in week 1. The Texans straight up just don’t have much going for them this season. Tyrod Taylor was announced as the starter at QB. Tyrod is very turnover prone and is not someone who will be able to consistently move the ball down the field. The Jaguars D isn’t great, but this Texans offense will make any defense look good. Consider Jacksonville as a great medium price in their first game under new head coach Urban Meyer. 

Value Play: Houston Texans ($3,400)

I do not advise any low price option, but if you are absolutely in a crunch and need a low price D to finalize the perfect lineup, the Texans are your best bet. Vegas has this total set at 44.5. Jacksonville has a ton of new faces on the offensive end. How well Urban Meyer’s schemes will transfer to the professional game is a question mark. It is also questionable how well Lawrence will play in his first career start. If you need a cheap defense, take a chance with the Texans. 

Remember to check back later in the week for my final cash lineup and some GPP lineups. Respond to the @sharpsonly Twitter for any of your week 1 fantasy or DFS questions! 

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