NCAAF Win Total & Conference Futures:
Win Totals: 2 Unit Plays
Western Michigan O6 Wins -106
Indiana U7.5 -110
Notre Dame U9 -122
Maryland O5.5 -145
Charlotte U5 -120
Stanford U4 +100
Wyoming O8 -113
Boston College O7 -130
Kent State O5.5 -121
Western Kentucky O5.5 +100
Texas Tech O4.5 -165
Hawaii O6 -137
Louisiana Tech O4 -180
Conference Futures: 1 Unit Plays
Boise State to Win MWC +115
Western Kentucky to Win C-USA +850
Kent State to Win MAC East +550
West Mich O6 Wins:
- Offense ranked 16th in the nation and 9th in scoring last year.
- Lost top WR Eskridge to the Seattle Seahawks in the 2nd round of the NFL draft, but have two studs to take his place in Jaylen Hill and Skyy Moore
- QB Eleby is back for sophomore year. Last year had 65% Completion Rating with 18 TDs to 2 Ints
- One of the best OLs in the MAC. Returning 4 of 5 starters from last year.
- Defense is the problem, but they are returning 10 starters from last year who were 5th in the nation in tackles for loss
- Have a favorable schedule and get some of the tougher MAC opponents at home
- I have them penciled in for 6 wins with multiple coin flip games
- This is going to be an explosive offense and QB Kaleb Eleby is going to be a household name by the end of the year
- Is QB Penix healthy after suffering late season knee injury? He blew out his knee November 28th last year against Maryland. Reports are that he is on track to play season opener at Iowa, but I am not very confident he will be a 100%. That will be a major problem for the dual threat QB.
- Lost 2nd best WR in Philyor and Top RB Scott to NFL (10 of 12 rushing TDs)
- Offensive line is experienced but average. Out of the 4 OL players returning, non received even honorable mention for the Big 10.
- Indiana defense relied on takeaways defensively last year with 17 Ints and 3 fumble recoveries
- Lost Top Safety (4 Ints) and Top DL (4 sacks) to NFL
- Mich State, Mich, and Penn State all will be much better and tough games for Indiana
- First game on road at Iowa with a recovering QB, at home against potential Playoff Team Cincinnati, and a stronger Big 10 this year. With this schedule and the likely turnover regression, I can’t see this Indiana team getting to 8 wins this year.
- 10 starters return on Offense led by QB Thompson-Robinson
- Leading Receiver Dulcich is back. 517 Receiving yards and 5 TDs in 7 games last year
- All 5 OL return. 12th in the nation rushing
- Defense led Pac-12 in sacks and return all their DL besides Nose Tackle
- Return all of their secondary that had 9 INTs last year
- Hawaii, Fresno St, Cal, and Colorado all at home and expected wins. Arizona on road expected win
- 3 of toughest games at home. Arizona State, LSU, and Oregon
- They went 3-4 last year with all 4 losses by 6 points or fewer. Two of the games were 2nd half meltdowns.
- UCLA has been miserable for years and it’s about time for Chip Kelly to do something with the talent and experience UCLA has this year.
- New QB Jack Coan is a downgrade from Ian Book. Coan had 18 TDs and 5 INTs at Wisconsin in 2019, but was hurt with a foot injury all of last year. Book has 24 TDs and 3 INTs last year at ND and was a 3 year starter.
- Lost top 2 WRs and lost 4 guys off the OL
- Lost Top LB Owusu-Koramoah
- New Defensive Coordinator
- At least top RB, one of the best players in the country, Kyren Williams is back
- Secondary is very good
- Tough schedule: Road games against: FSU, Wisconsin, & Virginia Tech. Home games against: Cincy, USC, and UNC
- The schedule is tough and I don’t trust that this team gels together quick enough to hit the over. Alarm bells go off for me when a total is this high and you have a new defense, new OL, and a new QB. There are just too many new parts to get over 9 wins.
- All the main Offensive weapons are back for QB Tagovailoa.
- Top 4 WRs are back including 6’3 Dontay Demus who had 4 TDs and avg 73 y/g in only 5 games last year.
- 3 OL back including All Big-10 LT Jaelyn Duncan
- 10 starters back on Defense
- Return heart of the defense Safety Nick Cross
- Defense only had 2 INTs last year, but due for positive regression with returning players in the secondary
- First 4 games are HUGE. West Va at home (+2.5) followed by being favorites against Howard at home, Illinois on the road, and Kent State at home. Real possibility to start 4-0.
- Lost top RB Funk to NFL and top LB Campbell to Ole Miss
- Offense can score in bunches, but lacked consistency last year. Offensive line needs to be better and defense has to come up with some turnovers. With a lot of main pieces back, I like Maryland to go bowling with 6 wins.
- Lost its best two DL Horne and Harris and are rated the worst DL in C-USA. Let up 200 yards rushing 4 times last year
- Lost best two RBs Harbison and McAllister
- Lost best OT Crawford to Arkansas
- Lost best member of Secondary Safety Deluca
- Defense only had 5 sacks last year and one of the conferences worst rush defense
- Best thing they do is the passing attack. However, the Conference games with close spreads: FIU, FAU, and La Tech have the best secondaries in the Conference
- Tough non-conference games against Duke and Illinois
- Way too many missing pieces in a year with super senior covid eligibility. A lot of teams are returning 70+% of their rosters. Charlotte clearly is not and they lost some important pieces. Add a tough non-con schedule and tough conference, Charlotte will struggle to get to 5 wins.
- Lost QB Mills to the NFL and have no real replacement with experience
- Lost top WR Fehoko to the NFL
- Pass defense was worst in Pac 12, with only 2 INTs last year
- Stoping the run is an issue, they let up 200 yards rushing in 4/6 games last year
- Have not hit 200 yards rushing in a game in 2 years
- Lost Leading tackler LB Robinson
- Last years team went 4-2 and and they went 4-1 in games decided by 5 points. Is that skill or luck? I say a little bit of both and negative regression is coming their way this year.
- They have one of the worst schedules in NCAAF. All 12 games against Power 5 schools. They only have 4 games they are less than a TD underdog. That’s at K-State, at Vandy, at Oregon State, and Cal. They are +2.5 against K-State to start the year.
- I don’t see them winning more than 2 of those 4 games with 3 of them coming on the road.
- This Stanford team is probably good enough to win more than 4 games, but this nightmare of a schedule says otherwise.
- Dominate Defense that was ranked 16th in the country allowing 21 PPG. Best part, they return all 11 guys
- Top 2 DL Byrd and Crall sat out last year, but are back this year
- Offense returns 10 starters from last year
- Top 2 RBs Valladay and Smith are back this year and they combined for over 1k rush yards and 9 touchdowns
- OL returns all 5 starters
- Problem is the Passing attack. Wyoming didn’t have a QB complete more than 50% of their passes.
- Top 3 WRs return, but need some consistency from the QB
- If Wyoming can just find a QB to be average and complete say 55% of his passes and convert some 3rd downs, they have the tools and defense to be very special in the MWC.
- Non-conference schedule is super light with Montana State, at Northern Illinois, Ball State, and at UCONN. They also got lucky in the cross conference scheduling and avoided two solid MWC teams in San Diego State and Nevada.
- I am very bullish on this Wyoming team this year. They have one of the best home field advantages in the country, the running game is great, and this defense is elite. Look, any time a team returns this much talent and experience, I am all in.
Boston College O7:
- Stud QB Jurkovec who is getting 2022 NFL draft buzz and completed 61% of passes last year. Had 20 TDs to 5 INTs
- Best WR Zay Flowers is back
- All 5 OL are back
- Defense had major growing pains with a new DC last year, but they are returning 8 players
- Have to be better against the run. Got torched against Clemson, ND, and Virginia last year
- Have to be more balanced with a better running attack
- All the returning pieces took part in close games against Clemson, Notre Dame, and UNC last year
- Won 6 games last year with all new coaches
- Has a very favorable schedule
- ND, UNC, and Miami are all off the schedule and replaced with Colgate, UMASS, Temple, and Mizzou
- BC has the QB and the offensive weapons to do some damage in a down year in ACC. If the defense steps up, BC could be a sneaky good team in the ACC. With the soft non-conference schedule and a blah ACC conference, I expect BC to get over the 8 win hurdle.
Kent State O5.5:
- Kent State returns almost all of an offense that finished 1st in total offense, 1st in total scoring, and 2nd in Passing efficiency.
- Okay, I’ll confess they only played 4 games last year and two came against two of the worst FBS schools in the country Akron and Bowling Green, but the stats are impressive anyway.
- QB Dustin Crum is a real deal dual-threat QB. 71% completion rate, 12 Pass TDs, and 4 Rush TDs in just 4 games last year
- Running game was 3rd in the nation and returns all its key players
- Big WR transfer coming from Syracuse Nykeim Johnson
- All 5 OL are back. 1 was an All-MAC selection
- Defense was an issue last year, but return 8 starters from last year
- As long as the defense is competent, Kent State will win football games. They avg 50 PPG last year and only lost top WR McCoy
- I have Kent State penciled in for 5 wins with 3 coin flip games.
- MAC East is wide open this year with Powerhouse Buffalo losing Head Coach Leipold and top RB Patterson. Two trash teams in Akron and Bowling Green. Kent State offense way more explosive than Ohio and Miami Ohio. If Kent State offense can keep firing on all cylinders and the defense steps up a bit, I see no reason why they can’t win the East and I love the price. Sprinkle Kent State Wins MAC East +550
Boise State to Win MWC +110:
- Had two good QBs in Bachmeir and Spears get hurt last year. Best RB out last year. Also had a mess of injuries on defense
- All these injured players are back this year
- Top WR All-MWC Shakir is back plus 2nd leading pass catcher Thomas.
- 4/5 starters returning on the OL
- Offense has new OC Plough from UC Davis. UC Davis under Plough was known for being an explosive offense in the FCS. Boise State has the athletes on offense and the QBs to make this work.
- Defense was the issue last year. Here comes brand new HC known for his dominate defense Andy Avalos. Avalos was the DC at Boise State and the last few years at Oregon.
- Broncos get a favorable schedule to get back to MWC Championship game. Only real competition in MW Mountain division is Wyoming. As you know I love Wyoming this year, but Boise State gets this important game at home.
- I have no doubt a healthy Boise State team gets to the the MWC Championship game. From there, we can hedge out if need be since we have this at plus money
- I trust Avalos to have this defense rejuvenated and Plough to have the offense rolling to a MWC Crown
- This might end up being my favorite Mid Major team of the year
- In a wild turn of events WKU has 25 players transferring out and 17 coming in.
- A good chunk of the incoming players are from power 5 schools, but they aren’t even the most important pieces.
- These pieces are the QB, OC, and top 2 WRs from Houston Baptist
- HC Helton for WKU was fed up with how dismal the offense was last year (avg 25 PPG) and decided to bring in a whole new explosive offense.
- Houston Baptist Transfer QB Zappe threw for almost 2k yards, 15 TDs, and 1 INT in his 4 games against FBS schools last year
- HB Transfer WR Sterns caught 10 or more passes in all 4 HB games last year
- Power 5 transfers coming in to bolster OL
- WKU defense was strong last year only letting up 25 PPG.
- Best DL and sack leader Malone is back
- I love the potential this new look WKU team has and I have never heard of a team transferring in so many players. Especially, grabbing an entire offense and OC from another school!
- I have WKU penciled in for 8 wins assuming the offense works as expected
- They avoid UAB and La Tech who are two of the best 3 teams on the other side of the conference.
- WKU has gone to a bowl game in 6 of the last 7 years. All they need is 6 wins.
- This bet is already boom or bust with so many unknowns and so much hype. I am buying the hype. Whats not to love about a potential high octane offense with a stout defense in C-USA? I am sprinkling WKU to win C-USA at +850.
Texas Tech O4.5:
- Team was blah last year, but 2 new key components are coming to help the offense.
- Oregon Transfer QB and potential first round pick Tyler Shough comes to Lubbock oozing potential and new OC Cumbie loves to air it out.
- Top catch leader from last year WR Uzekanma is back to help
- Top RB Thompson, who had 8 TDs last year is back as well
- 4 OL starters back
- A team with one of the most returning seniors for Covid year in the country
- 11 of the top 13 members from the defense are back
- Non-conference schedule is pretty easy with Houston, SFA, and FIU. Throw in the easy conference game against Kansas and you have 4 wins right there. I see no reason for this team to miss a bowl appearance.
- I love this bet. With a couple cupcakes on the schedule, a STUD QB, and all the experience returning. This team is a guarantee to win at least 6 games and I have no idea why this number is so low regardless of the juice I am laying.
- 8 Starters back on Offense
- 11 Starters back on Defense
- QB Cordeiro RB Turner make or break this team.
- Cordeiro is a dual threat QB in his second full year at QB. Sign me up. He had over 2,500 total yards and 21 TDs to 6 INTs last year
- Turner is the do-it-all RB/WR for the Rainbow Warriors. Last year he had 331 yards rushing with 4 TDs and 546 yards receiving with 6 TDs. This was in 9 games while also splitting the backfield duty. Many analysts believe he will be playing football in the NFL soon.
- Defense was strong last year and bring a ton of talent back. Worst part was the rush defense
- Transfer from OU McKinney and Utah Tonga should provide a big boost to the DL
- Many of Hawaii’s coin flip games are at home in Hawaii which is a huge boost
- Three cupcake games in New Mexico State twice and Portland State. Just need 3 more from there to break even.
- It’s Hawaii! They will be gritty and find ways to win football games. Also, who doesn’t love sweating out some Hawaii football late into a Saturday night!?
La Tech O4:
- This is a bet on HC Skip Holtz more than any single player on La Tech. He has led the Bulldogs to 7 straight Bowl Games
- This veteran coaching staff had a brutal team in rebuild mode last year and still went 5-5
- C-USA is a weak conference outside the top 4 teams: Marshall, UTSA, UAB, and WKU. La Tech avoids Marshall and WKU from the other side of the conference
- Return 10 starters on Defense
- Return 4 Starting OL
- Return QB Luke Anthony who was accurate when healthy
- RB Transfer Williams from App State will need to be big
- I have La Tech penciled in for 4 for sure wins with a couple coin flips on the schedule making this a must bet
If you made it this far, I would like to say thank you. I am excited for another year of College Football and I don’t plan on letting off the gas after a couple winning years in a row! I am excited to be working with SharpsOnly and will be posting articles with my College Football Plays weekly, so stay on the look out for tweets from my twitter @GuaranteesG. (All information was gathered through a mix of podcasts, articles, and my own independent research)